Unless you are new to baccarat, the chances are you have heard that you “should always wager on the Banker.” This isn’t just one of the most cited gambling quotes.
Betting with the Banker is not only the simplest but also the safest baccarat strategy. And it all boils down to pure math.
First of all, the theoretical house edge for betting on the Banker, as mentioned earlier, is 1.06 percent. By the same token, the return to player (RTP) or payout percentage for Banker bets is a staggering 98.94 percent.
If we assume that you made a hundred $1 bets on the Bank hand, then you will get $98.94 back. It’s worth keeping in mind that this metric is theoretical and it only tells you whether a specific bet is better or worse than another.
The RTP of a bet on the Bank hand of 98.94 percent suggests that it’s slightly better than a Player hand wager, which has an RTP of 98.76 percent. Similarly, a bet on a tie is worse than either because of its relatively low RTP of 85.64 percent.
The reason betting on the Banker is always a good idea goes beyond the house edge and RTP, though. Let’s take a closer look at the math of the Banker betting baccarat strategy:
Assuming that the casino is using eight standard 52-card decks; Tie bets pay at 8:1; Banker bets pay evens minus 5 percent commission; and that there’s a 1:1 payoff for Player bets, then the math says:
● Player hand loses 45.87 percent, wins 44.63 percent, and ties 9.51 percent.
● Bank Hand, on the other, loses 44.65 percent, wins 45.87 percent, and ties 9.51 percent.
If we remove all hands that tie from the equation, then the Bank hand loses 49.32 percent of the hands, while it wins 50.68 percent. On the flip side, 50.68 percent of Player hands lose, while 49.32 percent win.
Against this mathematical background, it’s clear that Bank hand bets are more likely to win than lose, while Player hands lose more frequently than win. To correct for this, there’s a 5 percent commission on all winning Banker bets.
Even when you include the 5 percent charge and ignore hands that tie, the Banker hand’s house advantage is still a very favorable 1.17 percent. In other words, every $100 worth of Banker bets will result in a theoretical loss of $1.17, while similar Player hand wagers will result in a loss of $1.36.
Numbers don’t lie: you’re more likely to win if you trust your money with the Banker!
Don’t get it wrong, though. Betting solely with the Player has an almost equally low house edge of 1.36 percent, which means it can also be a viable baccarat strategy.
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